Re: [Fsfe-uk] Time to boycot OLPC?

[Nick Hill]

Negreponte has succeeded very well in creating a recognisable brand for OLPC.

Sugar or whatever applications running on it have very little brand recognition 
in comparison to OLPC. For me, the OLPC brand is closely intertwined with the 
idea of putting funny laptops with little green ears in the hands of African 
villages.

I don't feel the OLPC brand is particularly flexible. Negreponte is clearly 
great at getting attention, great at some elements of marketing, but poor at 
business.

I believe, as previously mentioned in the thread, that Negreponte's main mistake 
is failing to get them out there. Dribs and drabs is OK as it gets the ball 
rolling. Selling them, putting them in anyone's hands who wants them at a keen 
price. Grass roots projects and getting a feel for the hardware is most 
important. OLPC business has seemingly always been about getting 'that big order'.

OLPC is probably doomed, and not as a result of any operating system or bundled 
software decision OLPC made. That can be seen from the success of the EeePC.

OLPC will be out-competed by Asus and many others who are certain to follow 
suit. I would not be at all surprised to see EeePC clone computers on sale by 
Christmas for less than £100. I reckon EeePC computers cost around £45 to make, 
and with competition, and increasing volume, prices will be a little higher than 
manufacturing costs. (It is clear ASUS have mercilessly trimmed manufacturing 
costs to the bone using a 7" screen where there is space for an 8 or 9" screen 
which would substantially improve usability but have a cost delta of maybe £3).


I estimate the costs of EeePC hardware when manufactured in tens of millions, 
break down at factory gate approximately as follows (without VAT):
7" TFT screen £7
Keyboard, plastics £5
Battery £4
PSU £2
4Gb Flash £5
Processor, glue logic and PCB £11
WiFi chipset & ancilliaries £4
Packaging, manuals etc £2
Assembly and testing £4.

Total: £44+VAT.

(I have manufactured computer hardware, and pay attention to the pricing of 
commodity equipment.) The above pricing structure will fall further as volume 
drives further integration.

Therefore, OLPC as a hardware offering is completely dead. OLPC is supposed to 
be cheap, but OLPC can't do cheap like ASUS and their inevitable imitators can 
and will.

OLPC might be rugged, but I imagine that in a very poor African village, 
schoolchildren will not be allowed to drop a laptop. A child would be petrified 
of dropping, loosing, or getting it wet for fear of consequences, and the 
elders, I am sure, will make those consequences very clear. That is even if 
parents dare allow their children to carry them.






Ian Lynch wrote:
> On Fri, 2008-04-25 at 10:12 +0100, Alex Hudson wrote:
>
> > > That is exactly what is happening; if they make the Sugar UI run on
> > > windows and ship windows, they will sell more laptops.
>
> >  This is a
> > > education project (ie, about putting the Sugar in kids hands) and not
> > > a software freedom project.
>
> So what they are really selling is a rather idiosyncratic piece of
> educational software in a market where there are thousands of competing
> applications. The advantage of innovative hardware disappears as soon as
> you run Windows because all the established manufacturers will dive in
> if there is anything like a global take up and they are likely to do it
> cheaper and better. Sugar will be ignored and they'll just use the
> Windows desktop. This is assuming the price with Windows can be made
> affordable for mass take up when other costs such as hardware and
> supporting software are taken into account.
>
> > Hm, that does make sense then - the project can't serve two masters 
> > without compromise.
>
> Personally I'm not sure it ever made sense from an educational marketing
> perspective. The only real way it made sense was to enable a
> disenfranchised mass into the market by lowering the price point with a
> good enough (for the target market) product. Read Clay Christensen's
> theories on disruptive innovation. I think the educational merits of
> Sugar are a complete red herring. There is £500m worth of noise in the
> systems coming from UK curriculum on-line alone.
>
> Ian