of possible interest for agent-based modelling

[Chris Landauer]

hello, all -

i thought this note might be of interest in the light of repeated questions
and discussion here about the merits of agent-based modeling (see especially
the last paragraph - i have not yet read the essay, but i am about to work on
finding it) - i included the rest of the message for context

more later,
cal

Dr. Christopher Landauer
Aerospace Integration Science Center
The Aerospace Corporation
address@hidden

------- Forwarded Message
Subject: [contact] "Fountation" ' "Al Qaeda"
To: address@hidden, address@hidden
Cc: address@hidden, address@hidden, address@hidden

} From address@hidden Mon Oct 22 14:58 MST 2001
} From: Sean Downey <address@hidden>
} Subject: Here's a new one...what do you think! (off the underbelly of the web)
} To: "Reed D. Riner" <address@hidden>
} 
} A couple of weeks ago I asked a friend of mine, Russian writer and Afghan
} war veteran Vladimir Grigoriev to find out if "The Foundation", a 1951
} sci-fi bestseller by Isaac Asimov, a well-known American author and
} scientist, was translated and published in Arabic, and if so, under what
} title? Yesterday, I learned that my: friend contacted his former professor
} Olga Frolova, currently the Chair of the Arab Philology Department, School
} of Oriental Languages, St. Petersburg State University, and she confirmed
} that the book was published in Arabic as "Al Qaeda", the title matching the
} name of the international terrorist network founded and headed by Osama bin
} Laden.
} 
} This peculiar coincidence would be of little interest if not for abundant
} parallels between the plot of Asimov's book and the events unfolding now.
} The central character of "The Foundation" named Seldon, the pioneer of a new
} scientific discipline called "psychohistory", predicts that the Galactic
} Empire is about to fall. While the process of disintegration cannot not be
} stopped, Seldon decides to send an expedition to a remote place on the
} outskirts of the Galaxy and establish The Foundation, which is to become the
} nucleus of the next Empire.
} 
} Even though the Old Empire tries to destroy The Foundation with its superior
} military might, Seldon's plan eventually works despite many predicted
} difficulties and occasional random hiccups. Seldon does not live long enough
} to see the triumph of his cause, but he leaves videotaped messages at a
} machine timed to broadcast them to his followers and instruct them at the
} turning points of The Foundation's history, as his forecasts are coming
} true.
} 
}-- End of excerpt from Sean Downey

On beyond 1st Foundation, the Killer B's (Benford, Bear, Brin) 2nd Foundation
Trilogy embraces all that has gone before in a fine essay of the relative
merits of forecasting by 'systems modeling' vs by 'agent- based modeling'.

------- End of Forwarded Message


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