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RE: Swarm and GIS libraries
From: |
Frank Lenk |
Subject: |
RE: Swarm and GIS libraries |
Date: |
Thu, 22 Jan 1998 08:44:11 -0600 |
Sorry for reposting, but it appears my original message got trashed about
halfway through.
Frank
>Alex -
>I am basically a lurker, having no UNIX or C++/Objective C experience.
>However, I am an experienced economic modeler and forecaster who believes we
>will never be able to predict the non-linear behavior we observe until we
>understand how individuals behave and interact to create the aggregate.
>My special field of expertise is forecasting how urban areas grow and develop,
>and my interest is in discovering the least intrusive policies that alter the
>dynamics to produce economies that generate growing equality of opportunity,
>rather than growing inequality, and that produce balanced, sustainable growth
>rather than rapid growth outward coupled with decline and disinvestment inward.
>The agent-based part of Swarm gets half the picture, if you think of agents as
>human beings interacting with one another. The other half is the environment
>in which they live, which constrains many of the possible choices agents might
>otherwise have. Indeed, the difference in environments contributes greatly to
>urban form -- I live in Kansas City, and the vast quantities of farmland that
>surround the metro seem especially conducive to growing outward rather than
>upward.
>In my minds eye, I picture the ideal modeling framework as essentially a
>digital aerial image of the Kansas City area upon which my agents are
>wandering, producing, traveling, buying housing, etc. As I watch, the aerial
>image changes, with urban development spreading outward, housing being
>demolished inward, traffic jams up where growth exceeds capacity and flows
>unimpeded where the demand anticipated to be served by a new highway never
>shows up.
>In essence, I am watching a raster image being built up over time, except it
>is an intelligent raster. I can ask it (or actually my agents wandering on
>top of it) why the development proceeds as it does. Ideally, I would
>calibrate the model by starting with one raster image and altering parameters
>to best match a sequence of later images.
>GIS becomes very important in representing the physical environment, which in
>turn often determines the lowest cost places to develop and serve with sewers.
> Certain kinds of production activities also need certain environments, e.g.
>access to rail or water. Quality environments contribute to high demand.
>Poor environments lead to all kinds of undesirable outcomes.
>The type of interaction between agents and their environment that I envision
>requires a high degree of interactivity between Swarm and the GIS. Agents
>continually modify their environment by transforming land of one type to
>another (e.g. farm to housing), or from one value to another (e.g. high valued
>today versus lower valued tomorrow or deteriorating today to redeveloped
>tomorrow).
>And it seems to be the interaction between agents and their environment
>responsible for many of the social issues faced today. For example, many
>believe it is not poverty per se that creates problems but concentrated
>poverty, i.e. not just lack of income but physical isolation from the rest of
>society.
>I realize this is all vision/vapor. I hope it may be useful to keep in mind
>as the hive proceeds to the difficult, practical decisions ahead.
Frank Lenk
Director of Research Services
Mid-America Regional Council
Kansas City, MO
address@hidden
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================================
- Swarm and GIS libraries, Alex Lancaster, 1998/01/20
- Re: Swarm and GIS libraries, Dr. Paul Box, 1998/01/21
- Re: Swarm and GIS libraries, Su Wengui, 1998/01/21
- RE: Swarm and GIS libraries, Frank Lenk, 1998/01/21
- RE: Swarm and GIS libraries,
Frank Lenk <=
- Re: Swarm and GIS libraries, Dr. Paul Box, 1998/01/22
- Re: Swarm and GIS libraries, Dr. Paul Box, 1998/01/23