Re: [Bug-gnubg] OT: rigged dice on on-line BG sites

[Massimiliano Maini]

Jonathan Kinsey <address@hidden> wrote
on 01/03/2007 09:51:46:

> Massimiliano Maini wrote:
> > 
> > The method I have in mind will not tell you that the dice was
really
> > random (balanced). 
> > 
> > Technically, it's not a test on the statistical hypothesis of
each face
> > of a dice having probability equal to 1/6. As you said, this
would take
> > a lot of moves and, by the way, will not help in verifying that
the on-
> > line site software hasn't overriden the random number generator
on a 
> > specific position in a specific match.
> 
> Wouldn't the luck analysis do this?  Assuming a server was setup
to
> favour the under dog, I guess you could find a pattern between the
luck
> results and the rating differences in quite a small sample of games?

Partially, but the luck analysis is much more complicate.
Also, it relies
on 0ply analysis (that could be changed to 2ply, but
would be a bit slow)
and it assumes the bot you use (gnubg, of course)
has perfect play.
Finally, where to put the threshold above which you
can claim somebody has
on purpose manipulated the dice agains you ? 

MaX.