[Swarm-Modelling] Modelling robbery through Agent based modelling

[Paulsen, Derek]

Swarm Listserve,
     I am a professor of Criminal Justice who has done quite a bit of research on spatial patterns of crime, particularly commercial robbery (robbery of commercial locations) and I am wanting to try and create a simulation of commercial robbery for an actual city.  My attempt is to see if I can model/simulate robbery in a real city to test the impact of different factors (location, security, police presence) on robbery offenses.  I have done a considerable amount of research on spatial aspects that impact victimization as well as offender target selection characteristics (interviewed convicted offenders) and thus I have a good theoretical model for how commercial robbery locations are selected by offenders.  My question(s) is where is a good place to start?  I have very little programming experience, but have access to those who do.  Is there any particular system that integrates better with GIS and might work better for me?  What is the best way for me to go about learning more about the creation of models?  Is this a social process that can be simulated/modelled or am I off base? Any assistance would be greatly appreciated. 

Derek J. Paulsen
Assistant Professor
Director, Institute for Spatial Analysis of Crime
Department of Criminal Justice and Police Studies
Eastern Kentucky University
address@hidden