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Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances
From: |
Christian Anthon |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] error rate and match winning chances |
Date: |
Tue, 5 Aug 2008 15:13:00 +0200 |
Hi Achim,
it is not an entirely easy question to answer. But here is a short
explanation of the numbers:
Luck total EMG (MWC) -5.700 (-12.144%) -2.564
(+20.291%)
means that B gained 20.291+12.144 = 32.435% MWC by luck. As he
presumably started the match with 50% MWC, that means that he gained
100-50-32.435=17.57% MWC through skill:
Luck adjusted result -17.57%
+17.57%
or that he wins 32.43:67.57% of the matches. Whether these numbers are
good or meaningful I don't know.
Christian.
On Sat, Aug 2, 2008 at 5:36 PM, Mueller Achim <address@hidden> wrote:
> Hi folks,
>
> I have a question regarding the error rates and match winning chances.
>
> A
> B
> Overall Statistics:
> Error total EMG (MWC) -3.935 (-28.802%) -4.498
> (-25.202%)
> Error rate mEMG (MWC) -8.3 ( -0.061%) -9.6
> ( -0.054%)
> Snowie error rate -4.0 ( +0.000%)
> -4.6 ( +0.000%)
> Overall rating Advanced
> Advanced
> Actual result -50.00%
> +50.00%
> Luck adjusted result -17.57%
> +17.57%
> Luck based FIBS rating diff. -139.10
> Error based abs. FIBS rating 1966.7
> 1955.2
> Chequerplay errors rating loss 69.9 73.1
> Cube errors rating loss 13.4 21.6
>
>
> Luck Statistics:
> Luck total EMG (MWC) -5.700 (-12.144%) -2.564
> (+20.291%)
> Luck rate mEMG (MWC) -11.5 ( -0.025%) -5.2
> ( +0.041%)
> Luck rating None
> None
>
>
>
> Some Snowie numbers (same match to 21 point):
>
> Error rate: 3.377 4.441
> Match winning chance: 53.27% 46.73%
> Average luck rate: -3.669 3.669
>
>
> using gnubg's Luck adjusted result player B was 67.57% favorite and up
> 139.10 fibs rating point?! Comparing all these numbers with th Snowie
> analysis I'm totally puzzled now. Also see this thread from may:
> http://www.nabble.com/match-winning-chances-td17190905.html (which I tried
> to follow, but ...).
>
> Which gnubg numbers are the most reliable for computing the match winning
> chances in a match to a certain amount of points (based on the error rates)?
> Is there a formula which can be used for computing match winning chances for
> other match lengths based on the given numbers of a analysis, e.g. take this
> 21p match and compute the chances in a 13p match.
>
> Ciao
>
> Achim
>
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