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Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances
From: |
Christian Anthon |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances |
Date: |
Tue, 13 May 2008 00:41:10 +0200 |
This doesn't work any more. The cube error rate was broken and had to
be fixed, which invalidates the formulas. New ones could be made if
somebody care. I don't.
Christian.
On Mon, May 12, 2008 at 6:47 PM, Michael Petch <address@hidden> wrote:
>
> Considering that all you need is EPM and EPC (The error rates for the
> Unforced moves, and cubes) - the player records will suffice. The value N in
> the formula is the match length. These 3 values can simply be plugged into
> this reduce formula:
>
> R = (8798 + 25526/N)*EPM+(863 - 519/N)*EPC,
>
> R = ratings differnce based on checker, cube play, and match length values.
>
>
> On 5/12/08 10:33 AM, "Michael Petch" <address@hidden> wrote:
>
>
>
>
> The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel:
>
> http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/
>
> The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized at the top.
> How the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90% of the article
> after that.
>
> Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then use the Fibs
> formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC. The part of the fibs
> formula you want is here:
> Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use it as the
> value for variable "D" in the formula below. The match length is variable
> "n"
>
> First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U =
> 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1)
> To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed as 1-U
>
> So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating difference
> computed by Kee's forumla at the link provided was 47.13 (for example), you
> would get soemthing like:
>
> D = 47.13 (Rating difference)
> n = 15 (Match length)
>
> U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1)
> U = .447655
>
> Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77%
> Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23%
>
> I haven't done any investigation, but I'm not sure if the information
> needed to do the ratings difference calculation (Part 1 above) is available
> through standard player records, but I am pretty sure if you use the
> relational database to store the records that all the info you need is
> there.
>
> Let me know if this helps at all.
>
> Mike
>
> On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <address@hidden> wrote:
>
>
> Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate) my match winning chances
> against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in the player
> records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is 0.0200 and my
> opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate my match winning chances
> for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would like to get something like the
> "luck adjusted result" from the match statistics which tells me that I am
> e.g. 60% favorite to win a 5pter against this opponent. What is the formula?
>
> Thanks in advance,
> Thomas Koch
>
>
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>
> Michael Petch
> Quortech Solutions Ltd.
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>
- [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Thomas Koch, 2008/05/12
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Michael Petch, 2008/05/12
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Michael Petch, 2008/05/12
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances,
Christian Anthon <=
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Michael Petch, 2008/05/12
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Christian Anthon, 2008/05/13
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Massimiliano Maini, 2008/05/13
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Michael Petch, 2008/05/13
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Michael Petch, 2008/05/13
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Thomas Koch, 2008/05/13
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Massimiliano Maini, 2008/05/13
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Michael Petch, 2008/05/13
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] match winning chances, Thomas Koch, 2008/05/13