Re: [Bug-gnubg] Wrong cube errors categories in analysis statistics panel

[Joern Thyssen]

On Thu, Oct 02, 2003 at 10:21:13PM +0200, Holger wrote
> At 02:09 01.10.2003, Jim Segrave wrote:
> 
> >> Does someone know why getMatchPoints() does this and whether this is
> >> intended?
> >
> >I can't reproduce this.
> 
> Here is an example:
> Attached is a game with one wrong double and a missed double. To reproduce: 
> run gnubg in gdb, set a breakpoint just after line 311 (the call to 
> getMatchPoints), load the attached game, and invoke Analyse/Session 
> statistics.
> Here this gives for the wrong double (the first decision):
> 
> (gdb) p aaarPointsMatch
> $2 = {{{0.26412797, 0.225260854}, {0.49239853, 0.49239853},
>        {0.720825553, 0.785499096}, {0.969819069, 0.785499096}},
>       {{0.279174447, 0.214500904}, {0.507601678, 0.507601678},
>        {0.73587203, 0.774739146}, {0.984015822, 0.774739146}}}
> 
> Analyse/Market window (GUI version) with the wrong double selected gives:
> Market window for player pl0
>     Dead cube Fully live
> TP   26.413%   21.450%
> DP   49.240%   49.240%
> CP   72.083%   77.474%
> TG   96.982%   77.474%
> 
> Market window for player pl1
>     Dead cube Fully live
> TP   27.917%   22.526%
> DP   50.760%   50.760%
> CP   73.587%   78.550%
> TG   98.402%   78.550%

Sorry, I've lost track of this thread. Where is the error in the numbers
above?

> >> I'm wondering about the following: The winning probability
> >> (aarOutput[ 0 ][ OUTPUT_WIN ]) doesn't include any added value for
> >> gammon or bg chances (aarOutput[ 0 ][ OUTPUT_WINGAMMON ] and
> >> aarOutput[ 0 ][ OUTPUT_WINBACKGAMMON ]). Those match points (DP, CP,
> >> TG) have an entity of cubeful equity, don't they? And I think
> >> equities are calculated as the sum of winning chances, gammon
> >> chances and bg chances, thus include gammon and bg value. If all
> >> this was correct so far, then I suppose these 2 values can't be
> >> compared.
> >
> >This seems a good point - I think picking the point needs to be done
> >in terms of MWC, it's not enough to do equity, since in some match
> >points, gammons are irre;evant.
> 
> Ok, I'll compare them with an entity of MWC. 

NO NO NO!

The values returned by getMatchPoints *must* be compared with a gwc,
i.e., arOutput[ OUTPUT_WIN ]!!!!

The numbers above say that pl0 can take a double when he has a game
winning chance of 21.450% - 26.413% depending on recube-vig. The numbers
do *not* say anything about the MWC he must have to take!!!

Jørn

pgpWEGq2z1eTK.pgp
Description: PGP signature