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RE: [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency
From: |
Albert Silver |
Subject: |
RE: [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency |
Date: |
Tue, 16 Sep 2003 14:25:23 -0300 |
> It would be great if you posted the position - even if you don't think
> it is relevant to the problem you are facing.
Naturally it is no problem to show the position, but as I said, it is
completely unimportant whether my decision was wrong or right.
GNU Backgammon Position ID: 7gCAIOY2JgFCAA
Match ID : UQmgAkAAEAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: MartinKrainer
| | | X O O X | OO 4 points
| | | O O | OO
| | | O O | O
| | | | O
| | | | O
v| |BAR| | 21 point match
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X | On roll
| X X X O | | X X X O X | 2 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: SubtleOne (Cube: 2)
What is important is the difference in the size of errors from (-0.007)
to (-0.115) when *everything* in the percentages is improved:
Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.345 (Money: +0.343)
72.5% 0.0% 0.0% - 27.5% 9.7% 0.9%
^^^^^ ^^^^
3. Double, take +0.671 ( -0.007)
^^^^^^^^^
Rollout cubeless equity +0.369 (Money: +0.362)
3. Double, take +0.747 ( -0.115)
^^^^^^^^^
Player SubtleOne owns 2-cube:
73.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 27.0% 8.9% 0.9% CL +0.369 CF +0.862
^^^^^ ^^^^
Player MartinKrainer owns 4-cube:
74.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 26.0% 8.8% 0.9% CL +0.847 CF +0.747
^^^^^ ^^^^
If my winning percentages according to the rollout *improved* from 72.5%
to 73% or 74% then why did the size of the error *worsen* from -0.007 to
-0.115 ?? That is what I want to understand. Mind you I also get
gammoned less in the rollouts.
Albert