Re: [Bug-gnubg] Rotating rolls in rollout

[Joern Thyssen]

On Thu, Oct 03, 2002 at 10:05:18AM +0100, Ian Shaw wrote
> Some questions have arisen (thanks Zorba!) as a result of my posting
> of interrupted rollouts at GammOnLine.
> 
> If I have set rotation on for rollouts, what happens to the rollouts
> after the 1296th? Does rotation continue? I.e. Will 7776 trials do
> three complete rotations?

I assume you mean 46656 trials. If so, the answer is no! But it's
trivial to add support for this.

> 
> What are the implications for rollout reliability and significance if
> a number if trials is chosen which isn't a multiple of 1296? 

I'm not sure.

> Or if the rollout is interrupted?  

If you requested 1296 trials but only performed 36 you would get the
following dice sequences:

Game 0: 11-11-random...
Game 1: 21-11-random...
Game 2: 31-11-random...
Game 3: 41-11-random...
Game 4: 51-11-random...
Game 5: 61-11-random...
Game 6: 12-11-random...
...
Game35: 66-11-random...

> The order of the rollouts might be important.
> If the rollout has only rolled out all the 1x rolls, then the rollout
> could be biased. Perhaps the Variance Reduction eliminates most the
> bias?

I guess it would remove some of it, but I think it would still be
biased.

Jørn

-- 
Joern Thyssen, PhD
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